lpg

SIMON SAYS: Short today, Long tomorrow

Submitted by Simon Hill on Sun, 12/08/2019 - 17:00

Rumours surfacing, resurfacing, announcements, pronouncements, you guessed it, it’s OPEC time again. It seems more and more the case that whatever OPEC announces our attention in the LPG world, and for that matter the rest of the energy market, switches to Saudi Arabia, and whether Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has said anything, he normally has to!

SIMON SAYS: LPG comes in all different shapes and sizes!

Submitted by Simon Hill on Thu, 12/05/2019 - 05:00

Throughout most of the SIMON SAYs blogs produced so far I’ve concentrated on the refrigerated LPG market, transported mainly on very large gas carriers (VLGCs), between continents and across large spans of water, to get the supplies to their end destination. Of the approximately 105 million Mt of LPG shipped by sea, the movements by VLGC account for about 70-75 per cent of this trade, but what are the reasons for the other quarter of seaborne volumes being moved by other modes of transport, and what are the striking differences.

SIMON SAYS: Is it a window of opportunity or a negotiator’s nightmare?

Submitted by Simon Hill on Wed, 12/04/2019 - 17:00

I’ve always been fascinated with the way deals are done, the process of negotiation between two parties, maybe with someone in the middle, maybe not. It can be exciting, frustrating, win some, lose some. I think I was more a guy who wanted compromise, while I ended up doing deals with a number of traders hanging out for the last cent, even though I’m sure I would have done more with them if only they had shown a sign of compromise, it’s always good to blame the other party.

SIMON SAYS: North Africa, politics, philosophies and pure economics!

Submitted by Simon Hill on Tue, 12/03/2019 - 17:00

I thought it was about time I looked at one of the most important producing regions in the world of LPG, the somewhat contrary north African producers, Algeria and Libya, both of them tend to get less coverage than they deserve. Not anymore.

SIMON SAYS: There’s very little tolerance in the U.S. export system, come rain or shine (or fog!)

Submitted by Simon Hill on Mon, 12/02/2019 - 17:00

Although last week was shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday, a few more pieces seemed to be falling into place in the U.S., and for that matter when moving out of the U.S. as well. If we then add in a few what might or might not happen questions, it was actually an eventful last week of November. Then came the attention on the U.S. from Asia, concern may be, as well as from a small number of trading houses nestling in the major cities of Europe. But why the concern?

SIMON SAYS: Will all the bunker presents be wrapped in time for Christmas

Submitted by Simon Hill on Wed, 11/27/2019 - 17:00

So, we are getting even closer to the implementation of IMO 2020’s Sulphur cap, I bet you’re all prepared and excited to see what happens next, I certainly am! I think ship owners have made their minds up about both the short-term switches they have to make, as well as fueling decisions for future new buildings, especially VLGCs. The big question though is what will sit in the middle for those who have basically said they will “suck it and see”. The buzz is certainly dual fuel, and maybe it will also be part of the reality.

SIMON SAYS: Spreading LPG against naphtha is not for the feint hearted!

Submitted by Simon Hill on Tue, 11/26/2019 - 17:00

After a few years in the wilderness, and I do mean living on the Isle of Wight by the way, I was quite taken aback one day when two industry jargons were used in a flourish, as if I should have known exactly what they meant, one was “PRONAP” and the other was “FEIMOPJ”. Once I had worked out what they represented, I was then fascinated to know how they traded in the market.

SIMON SAYS: Markets never follow the script!

Submitted by Simon Hill on Sun, 11/24/2019 - 17:00

I know markets are supposedly 24/7 these days, but come on, it’s the holiday season a coming. The market is starting to show signs of easing back, getting programmes sorted and balanced, not taking on any more positions that might need late nights and early mornings sorting out potential problems, instead allowing for late nights and early mornings having fun, albeit in a more thoughtful way, and by the way, that’s not a veiled parallel to our excruciatingly misguided Prince Andrew. But as always there’s bound to be something about to happens that’s going to ruin the party!

SIMON SAYS: Give me a system any day, and a few VLGCs for good measure!

Submitted by Simon Hill on Thu, 11/21/2019 - 17:00

I was kindly invited to attend the first Argus LPG Awards for Excellence ceremony, this week in London’s Science Museum. I have to say it was a great success, and was lovely to see such a broad representation of our business, and some worthy winners as well. “You know who” picked up the best trader award, yes I do mean Seb Willems at Glencore, and he’d already got his winner’s speech prepared, that’s why he is #1, it’s all in the preparation! Mary-Jane Hogg deservedly won the executive of the year, and there were awards for Ineos, GE Power and Noreen Howat at Aggreko.

SIMON SAYS: It’s in the hands of the ship owners to call twist!

Submitted by Simon Hill on Wed, 11/20/2019 - 17:00

At a recent gathering of the good and the mighty in Athens, I understand a distinguished ship owner was able to hold a relatively straight face when explaining the challenges, or something along those lines, faced by the VLGC ship owners in the current mesmerizingly strong LPG shipping market. I’m sure every investor who boarded the run early, maybe even after reading my summer and autumn SIMON SAYS blogs, is sitting extremely comfortably today as he checks his share portfolio. But what happens next, is there going to be a twist, there usually is!