Yesterday we were looking at the OPEC announcement to cut crude oil production by 500 M Bbls/d, and the subsequent announcement that Saudi Arabia would maintain its voluntary and additional 400 M Bbls/d production drop. Just to show how difficult it is to gauge reality from rumour, there were strong noises coming out that earlier, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela had actually proposed a 500 M Bbls/d increase, even though this was of course strenuously denied.
I was kindly invited to attend the first Argus LPG Awards for Excellence ceremony, this week in London’s Science Museum. I have to say it was a great success, and was lovely to see such a broad representation of our business, and some worthy winners as well. “You know who” picked up the best trader award, yes I do mean Seb Willems at Glencore, and he’d already got his winner’s speech prepared, that’s why he is #1, it’s all in the preparation! Mary-Jane Hogg deservedly won the executive of the year, and there were awards for Ineos, GE Power and Noreen Howat at Aggreko.
However much we like to try to put crude oil and natural gas prices in the back of our minds, mainly because none of us really know enough about them, they are still the catalyst for what happens next in the LPG space. Today I explore what’s probably going on in the heads of those oil and natgas players, as they assess what’s going to happen next, and what will be the driving forces. Whether it tells us any more than we already know, or directs us in a certain path on LPG, well we have to wait till I get to the end.
In the last 10 years imports have jumped from 2.5 million Mt to over 12 million Mt today, but the early imports were in smaller cargo sizes as the import terminals were pretty spread around the country’s coastline, near to major cities, with a slant to the west coast given its proximity to Middle East supplies.
The first sanctions against Iran were imposed by the U.S. back in November 1979, following the seizure of the American Embassy in Tehran and hostages by radical students. This was the start of a number of sanction targets in and outside of Iran. Over the years the sanctions have taken a hefty toll on the Iranian economy and its people. They have been the cornerstone of U.S.