It’s Election Day in the U.K. as I pen this SIMON SAYS, the third election in 5 years, the stakes are high both for the future of Brexit, the future of the National Health Service, and for that matter the future of the World. The wind is howling, the rain is pouring, it’s a truly British day. I’ve just put my X in the box, my decision made, I’ll now need to wait 12 hours at least to find out who is going to win. It’s been a bit like that for the shipping world, which box do they put their cross in, and what does the future hold.
Throughout most of the SIMON SAYs blogs produced so far I’ve concentrated on the refrigerated LPG market, transported mainly on very large gas carriers (VLGCs), between continents and across large spans of water, to get the supplies to their end destination. Of the approximately 105 million Mt of LPG shipped by sea, the movements by VLGC account for about 70-75 per cent of this trade, but what are the reasons for the other quarter of seaborne volumes being moved by other modes of transport, and what are the striking differences.
I know markets are supposedly 24/7 these days, but come on, it’s the holiday season a coming. The market is starting to show signs of easing back, getting programmes sorted and balanced, not taking on any more positions that might need late nights and early mornings sorting out potential problems, instead allowing for late nights and early mornings having fun, albeit in a more thoughtful way, and by the way, that’s not a veiled parallel to our excruciatingly misguided Prince Andrew. But as always there’s bound to be something about to happens that’s going to ruin the party!
Over 30 years ago I made my first, and until last week, my most recent visit to Mont Belvieu, Texas, about 40 miles to the east of Houston, along Highway Interstate 10. In the 1980s, I remember there were a few pipes poking out of the ground, and I had just visited Enterprise’s already impressive Terminal, I won’t say export terminal, as they were doing both exports and imports at the time. But now the whole area is a vast array of fractionation towers sprouting up in all areas. Some tall, some not so tall, but none were small.
In yesterday’s SIMON SAYS I suggested that the perceived axiom of U.S. shale development’s future, the export barrel, was having a degree of doubt bestowed upon it., Albeit a somewhat near-sighted view, but as people say, be careful what you wish for! With U.S. inventory levels teasing the record peaks of November 2015, a lot is hinging on the weather in the U.S., and in case it might come as a late, but very welcome saviour.
The summer holiday clothes, the sun cream and photos, are now all destined for the physical and electronic storages, the kids are back, or going back, to school (hooray!), the northern hemisphere nights are drawing in, Love Island is but a dream and those winter TV series are all about to re-start! The structure of our lives is therefore about to change, so why not the structure of the LPG market?